UK: CPI to edge up to 1.6% in December – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities are looking for UK’s headline CPI to edge up to 1.6% YoY in December (market 1.5%), supported by higher crude oil prices into the end of the year.

Key Quotes

“We expect core CPI to slip down to 1.6% y/y (mkt 1.7%), reflecting delayed Black Friday sales spilling into the December data. Our forecast would see headline inflation slightly higher than the BoE's forecast from the November IR, but not enough to be a major consideration for monetary policy.”

“For the BoE, the big question is how much growth recovers, if at all, in the wake of the general election and as the political outlook becomes more certain. On the speaker front, we hear from Saunders at 8:40am, who will likely reinforce the market's dovish view, although we believe that the BoE is more likely to remain on hold this month.”